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IMF cuts Australian forecast, warns US

Written By Unknown on Selasa, 08 Oktober 2013 | 09.52

AUSTRALIA'S economic growth prospects have been downgraded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) due to the nation's vulnerability to slower Chinese demand for commodity exports.

The IMF has also cut its world growth forecasts and warned any failure by the United States to raise its debt ceiling could "seriously damage" the global economy.

In its World Economic Outlook released on Tuesday, the IMF forecast Australian growth of 2.5 per cent in calendar 2013, down from the three per cent prediction made in April.

The outlook was slightly better than the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest forecast of 2.25 per cent growth in 2013, but worse than trend growth of 3.25 per cent.

For 2014, the IMF sees Australian growth at 2.8 per cent, rather than 3.3 per cent.

The IMF also cuts to its China growth expectations, citing rising convictions that Australia's number one trading partner will grow more slowly over the medium term than in recent years.

China is forecast to grow by 7.6 per cent this year and 7.3 per cent next year, having averaged 10 per cent over the past decade.

"Policymakers have refrained from further stimulating growth, which is consistent with the objectives of safeguarding financial stability and moving the economy to a more balanced and sustainable growth path," the IMF said.

"In the short term, as demand shifts away from materials-intensive growth, some commodity exporters could be vulnerable."

More broadly, the IMF says global growth is in "low gear" and risks persist.

IMF economic counsellor Olivier Blanchard says, while advanced economies are gradually strengthening, emerging economies have slowed.

US growth had also been hobbled by excessive fiscal consolidation despite still strong US private demand.

"Politics is creating uncertainty ... and conflicts around increasing the debt ceiling could lead to another bout of destabilising uncertainty and lower growth," Mr Blanchard said in the report.

The damage to the US economy from a short shutdown of the US government would be limited, but a longer one could be quite harmful.

"Even more importantly, a failure to promptly raise the debt ceiling, leading to a US selective default, could seriously damage the global economy," it says.

Elsewhere, the IMF said Japan was enjoying a vigorous rebound and, while the euro area was "crawling" out of recession, activity was likely to remain tepid.


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Flatback turtles emerge from Darwin sand

A TINY flipper waves over the edge of a bootprint in the Darwin sand.

Slowly, very slowly, a little head follows.

With a heave, the newborn flatback turtle propels itself over the sand and suddenly he's scuttling at speed down the beach after his brothers and sisters to the breaking waves.

Across the beach they run the gauntlet, with grasses to get tangled in, footprints to fall into, and birds keeping a hungry eye on the baby turtles.

Once they hit the water there's fish, sharks, and even dolphins waiting for a bite to eat.

Along eight kilometres of Casuarina Coastal Reserve in Darwin, flatback turtle eggs are hatching, with a helping hand from park rangers and locals alike.

"It's the only capital city in the world with marine turtles nesting on its beaches," park ranger Dean McAdam tells AAP.

"That's pretty special, and we want to make sure we preserve the integrity of that nesting. We need these people to follow the regulations we establish here, because a lot of them are designed to protect the marine turtles."

The free turtle hatching program teaches the value of biodiversity in urban environments and is immensely popular, with a waiting list of more than 1000 people.

There are only four or five flatbacks nesting at Casuarina, with 10 to 12 clutches of eggs laid in a year, of 45 to 60 eggs each.

The rangers monitor the nests and move them if necessary to a safer place on the beach away from the people and animals who share it.

Casuarina Coastal Reserve is visited by four times as many people as neighbouring Kakadu, but the rangers hope locals will learn to treat it with the same level of respect.

"People treat this like their backyard, so the work we're doing here around turtle nests doesn't always get a positive response," says Nigel Weston, district manager for Darwin's urban parks.

"If they take their dogs off lead and we explain there's reasons why we have regulations in place they ignore us, whereas in Kakadu or Litchfield they behave differently."

On the beach, adults and children alike happily hold the baby turtles, hatched just that morning, before escorting them to the Timor Sea.

The little critters demonstrate surprising agility, which will come in handy when evading predators for the next three decades before they're ready to reproduce.

"We hope that when they reach maturity a few might come back here and nest again," Mr McAdam says.

The last baby turtle reaches the surf and with one wave, it's gone.


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Compensation for Aussie terror victims

MORE than a decade after the September 11 attacks in the United States and the 2002 Bali bombing, Australian victims and their families are finally set to receive compensation.

Prime Minister Tony Abbott will confirm the news on Wednesday when he visits the Bali bombing memorial site in Kuta, making good his pre-election pledge that he would address the issue within 100 days of taking office.

The victims of overseas terrorism compensation scheme was introduced by the Gillard government in 2012, but was not made retroactive, meaning those affected by the attacks in New York in 2001 and Bali in 2002 and 2005 were unable to benefit.

But Mr Abbott, who was in Bali at the time of the 2002 bombings, will announce that compensation payments will now be made available to victims and their families for terrorist attacks dating back to September 10, 2001.

This will cover the attacks on New York and Bali as well as those in London and Egypt in 2005, Mumbai in 2008 and Jakarta in 2009.

Mr Abbott was in Bali when a massive bomb in a parked van was detonated outside the Sari Club in the bustling tourist area of Kuta just after 11pm on October 12, 2002.

The explosion came just 20 seconds after a suicide bomber detonated a backpack loaded with explosives inside Paddy's Bar.

In the aftermath of the attacks, the prime minister spent many hours at Bali's Sanglah General Hospital trying to help victims.

Mr Abbott has always said his intention to address the compensation issue was personal, and not political.

The move to address the compensation issue will finally fix the "extreme injustice" for victims and their families of recent overseas terrorism, Mr Abbott will say.

The scheme, which will cost about $30 million, will benefit around 300 individuals and families.

Payments of up to $75,000 will be made available to each eligible person, or their families. Claims can be lodged from October 21.


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Regulators must improve:report

REGULATORS must make more effort to understand how regulation impacts small business.

Research the Productivity Commission has found small firms feel the burden of regulation more than larger businesses because a lack of staff, time and resources means they don't always understand and fulfil their obligations.

"A regulator's culture and attitude towards business can be as important as the content of the regulation itself," Commissioner Warren Mundy said in a statement on Wednesday.

"There is still significant scope for improvement in the way regulators engage with small business."

The report proposes a suite of changes which need to be implemented by all levels of government.

These include adopting communication practices with small business that focus on "brevity, clarity and accessibility of information".

Regulators should also be resourced to do their job effectively to avoid the shifting of direct and indirect costs onto business.

The commission found that regulators with effective risk-based engagement policies and procedures were more likely to be better resourced and to have senior leadership that invests in, and fosters, a business-focused culture among their staff.

"A stronger focus on risk was found to limit unnecessary intrusion on lower-risk small businesses, free up resources to improve frontline guidance and advice services, and enable them to more effectively address higher risks to communities," it says.

Government should require regulators to report back against a set of engagement principles to insure continuous improvement in regulatory performance.


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